Accounting for the spatial incidence of working from home in an integrated transport and land model system.

The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in a seismic shift in the way in which work is conducted. Remote working or working from home is becoming a centrepiece of the next normal with strong support from both employers and employees. With reduced commuting activity associated with an expected 1 to 2 days working from home for many occupations and industries, associated with releasing commuting time to spend on other activities including changed levels and patterns on non-commuting travel, it is necessary, indeed essential, to allow for the incidence of working from home in integrated strategic transport and location model systems. In this paper we show the extent of changes in travel behaviour and the performance of the transport network before and after allowing for working from home, which is more impactful than any new infrastructure project. The differences are significant and suggest that even within the existing modelling frameworks used pre-COVID-19, we need to make adjustments in the modal activity overall and by location. Using the MetroScan platform in the Greater Sydney Metropolitan area, we present a number of outputs to illustrate the significant impacts of working from home such as modal activity (total and shares), emissions, government revenues, and generalised cost of travel.

Quantifying the impact of COVID-19 on travel behavior in different socio-economic segments

The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in substantial negative impacts on social equity. To investigate transport inequities in communities with varying medical resources and COVID controlling measures during the COVID pandemic and to develop transport-related policies for the post-COVID-19 world, it is necessary to evaluate how the pandemic has affected travel behavior patterns in different socio-economic segments (SES). We first analyze the travel behavior change percentage due to COVID, e.g., increased working from home (WFH), decreased in-person shopping trips, decreased public transit trips, and canceled overnight trips of individuals with varying age, gender, education levels, and household income, based on the most recent US Household Pulse Survey census data during Aug 2020 ∼ Dec 2021. We then quantify the impact of COVID-19 on travel behavior of different socio-economic segments, using integrated mobile device location data in the USA over the period 1 Jan 2020–20 Apr 2021. Fixed-effect panel regression models are proposed to statistically estimate the impact of COVID monitoring measures and medical resources on travel behavior such as nonwork/work trips, travel miles, out-of-state trips, and the incidence of WFH for low SES and high SES. We find that as exposure to COVID increases, the number of trips, traveling miles, and overnight trips started to bounce back to pre-COVID levels, while the incidence of WFH remained relatively stable and did not tend to return to pre-COVID level. We find that the increase in new COVID cases has a significant impact on the number of work trips in the low SES but has little impact on the number of work trips in the high SES. We find that the fewer medical resources there are, the fewer mobility behavior changes that individuals in the low SES will undertake. The findings have implications for understanding the heterogeneous mobility response of individuals in different SES to various COVID waves and thus provide insights into the equitable transport governance and resiliency of the transport system in the "post-COVID” era.

Working from home 22 months on from the beginning of COVID-19: What have we learned for the future provision of transport services?

COVID-19 has delivered an unintended positive consequence through working from home (WFH). While it may be some time until we are able to indicate, with some confidence, the impact that WFH will have on traffic congestion and crowding on public transport, there is a sense already that it is a game changer, and indeed is one of the most effective policy levers that the transport sector has had for many years in ‘managing' the performance of the transport network. This paper draws on multiple ways of survey data that have been collected since March 2020 when the pandemic first resulted in severe restrictions in Australia. We present the evidence up to December 2021 on the incidence of WFH in two geographical jurisdiction – the Greater Sydney Metropolitan Area (GSMA) and South-East Queensland (SEQ) - and how it has been received by employees and employers from the height of restrictions up to a period when restrictions were relaxed, followed by further lockdowns throughout Australia. We show what this might mean for work productivity, lifestyle, and the changing preferences for passenger modes. With a growing preference, within some occupation classes, to WFH 1–2 days a week, and a good spread through the weekdays, we discuss what this means for the way we analyse the impact of transport initiatives on the performance of the transport network with a particular emphasis on the growth in suburbanisation of transport improvements, less costly service and infrastructure improvements, and the changing role of public transport.

Quantifying the impact of COVID-19 on travel behavior in different socio-economic segments.

The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in substantial negative impacts on social equity. To investigate transport inequities in communities with varying medical resources and COVID controlling measures during the COVID pandemic and to develop transport-related policies for the post-COVID-19 world, it is necessary to evaluate how the pandemic has affected travel behavior patterns in different socio-economic segments (SES). We first analyze the travel behavior change percentage due to COVID, e.g., increased working from home (WFH), decreased in-person shopping trips, decreased public transit trips, and canceled overnight trips of individuals with varying age, gender, education levels, and household income, based on the most recent US Household Pulse Survey census data during Aug 2020 âˆ¼ Dec 2021. We then quantify the impact of COVID-19 on travel behavior of different socio-economic segments, using integrated mobile device location data in the USA over the period 1 Jan 2020-20 Apr 2021. Fixed-effect panel regression models are proposed to statistically estimate the impact of COVID monitoring measures and medical resources on travel behavior such as nonwork/work trips, travel miles, out-of-state trips, and the incidence of WFH for low SES and high SES. We find that as exposure to COVID increases, the number of trips, traveling miles, and overnight trips started to bounce back to pre-COVID levels, while the incidence of WFH remained relatively stable and did not tend to return to pre-COVID level. We find that the increase in new COVID cases has a significant impact on the number of work trips in the low SES but has little impact on the number of work trips in the high SES. We find that the fewer medical resources there are, the fewer mobility behavior changes that individuals in the low SES will undertake. The findings have implications for understanding the heterogeneous mobility response of individuals in different SES to various COVID waves and thus provide insights into the equitable transport governance and resiliency of the transport system in the "post-COVID" era.

Exploring how worthwhile the things that you do in life are during COVID-19 and links to well-being and working from home.

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant impact on the way we work and live, with working from home becoming more than the occasional desire but a regular feature of work and life. While an increasing number of research studies have promoted the virtues of what is often described as the positive unintended consequences of the pandemic, there are also downsides, especially during periods of imposed restrictions on the ability to get out and about, that have broadly been described as impacting mental health and life's worth. In this paper we use data collected in New South Wales during September 2020 and June 2021, seven and 16 months after the pandemic began, to obtain an understanding of the extent to which the pandemic has impacted on how worthwhile things done in life are for workers. We investigate whether there is a systematic behavioural link with working from home, reduced commuting linked to distance to work, and various socio-economic characteristics. The evidence suggests that the opportunity to have reduced commuting activity linked to working from home and increased perceived work-related productivity have contributed in a positive way to improving the worth status of life, offsetting some of the negative consequences of the pandemic.

The impact of COVID-19 and working from home on the workspace retained at the main location office space and the future use of satellite offices.

There exists a substantial amount of research on the impact that the COVID-19 pandemic has had on significant changes in the location at which work takes place, especially working from home (WFH). There has been, however, very little systematic consideration given to the relationship between the substantial increase in WFH and the responses taken by organisations in reviewing their office (workspace) capacity needs in the future, including a switch of the mix of utilising workspace in the main office(s) and satellite office locations. The main aim of this paper is to explore the extent to which levels of working from home and increased use of rented satellite office space will be linked to changes in the amount of workspace required at the main office that was used pre-COVID-19. Using data from 459 businesses for three periods for pre-COVID-19, April 2022 (25 months after the outbreak of the pandemic) and stated intentions for 2023, we develop a random effects regression model for the Greater Sydney Metropolitan Area in which we identify some of the influences on the downsizing or not of the main office(s) work space, and comment on what we see as the most likely scenario for WFH and work space in the main office and rented satellite office space under the 'next normal'. The findings can be used to inform future commuting travel as well as changes in land use activity at specific locations, including possible reallocation of existing office space to other activity uses.

Time Allocation of Reduced Commuting Time During COVID-19 Under Working from Home

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant impact on weekly commuting activity, with a commensurate increase in remote working, especially from home. The reduction in the amount of commuting time has resulted in time released for other activities. In this paper we identify the incidence of released time to paid work, unpaid work, and leisure, and investigate the key drivers of this allocation. The findings are important in obtaining estimated time benefits from reduced commuting activity with such travel time being traded against work and leisure, and what this might mean for the future travel, activity location, and lifestyle landscape.

Air travel choice, online meeting and passenger heterogeneity - An international study on travellers' preference during a pandemic.

This study empirically identifies business travellers' preferences during the COVID-19 pandemic across different regions. A stated preference study was conducted during April to June 2021 on respondents in the U.S., the city of Shanghai in mainland China and Hong Kong. Generalised mixed multinomial logit (GMXL) models are estimated incorporating attributes of travel characteristics, severity levels of the pandemic, and health control measures at the airport. When an online meeting is inapplicable, respondents from Shanghai and Hong Kong highly value heath control measures, and are not sensitive to the time spent at airport health checkpoints. In comparison, U.S. respondents are averse to the time spent for health check, the reporting of personal information, travel history, symptoms, and the requirements of compulsory mask wearing and onsite sample testing. However, when online meeting is applicable, all the respondents show no appreciation for health control measures, while the U.S. respondents are twice more averse to the time spent at airport health checkpoints. Online meeting reduces the intention of international business travel amid the pandemic for passengers in Shanghai and Hong Kong, but imposes no significant effects on U.S. travellers. Such significant heterogeneity in traveller preference partly explains the different recovery patterns observed in various aviation markets, and justifies individualized travel arrangements and service priority in fulfilling pandemic control requirements across different regions. Our study also suggests that there are commonly accepted areas for global cooperation such as the sharing of vaccination record, and the option of online meeting calls for convenient travel arrangements amid pandemic to all countries.

Characterising public transport shifting to active and private modes in South American capitals during the COVID-19 pandemic.

During the year 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic affected mobility around the world, significantly reducing the number of trips by public transport. In this paper, we study its impact in five South American capitals (i.e., Bogotá, Buenos Aires, Lima, Quito and Santiago). A decline in public transport patronage could be very bad news for these cities in the long term, particularly if users change to less sustainable modes, such as cars or motorbikes. Notwithstanding, it could be even beneficial if users selected more sustainable modes, such as active transport (e.g., bicycles and walking). To better understand this phenomenon in the short term, we conducted surveys in these five cities looking for the main explanation for changes from public transport to active and private modes in terms of user perceptions, activity patterns and sociodemographic information. To forecast people's mode shifts in each city, we integrated both objective and subjective information collected in this study using a SEM-MIMIC model. We found five latent variables (i.e., COVID-19 impact, Entities response, Health risk, Life related activities comfort and Subjective well-being), two COVID-19 related attributes (i.e., new cases and deaths), two trip attributes (i.e., cost savings and time), and six socio-demographic attributes (i.e., age, civil status, household characteristics, income level, occupation and gender) influencing the shift from public transport to other modes. Furthermore, both the number of cases and the number of deaths caused by COVID-19 increased the probability of moving from public transport to other modes but, in general, we found a smaller probability of moving to active modes than to private modes. The paper proposes a novel way for understanding geographical and contextual similarities in the pandemic scenario for these metropolises from a transportation perspective.

The effect of online meeting and health screening on business travel: A stated preference case study in Hong Kong.

This study quantifies the effects of health control measures at the airport on passenger behaviour related to business travel. A stated preference survey was conducted over potential air travellers in Hong Kong in the context of COVID-19 pandemic. Panel latent class models were estimated to understand passenger preference toward new travel requirements given the applicability of online meeting. Online meeting is applicable in cases where it is a good substitute of air travel and achieves the same outcomes of a trip, and inapplicable otherwise. Empirical results indicate that traveller subgroups are affected in different ways. When an online meeting is inapplicable, nearly 75% of the respondents prefer to travel for business and undertake health screenings. These passengers (identified as "captive" business travellers) perceive such measures necessary to lower health related risks during air travel. As such, they are willing to spend up to 21 to 38 min on the health control measures such as vaccination record requirements and test involving sample collection. When an online meeting is applicable, the share of "choice" business travellers is about 45%, among whom the attitudes towards health control measures become more averse. The average weighted willingness-to-pay for the time saved at health checkpoints increase significantly. The aviation industry thus faces a "double-hit" problem: operation costs will increase due to pandemic control measures, and the resultant inconvenience, extra time and costs further reduces travel demand. Unlike previous short pandemics, business travel is likely to suffer with an extended decline until the pandemic is fully controlled. These identified challenges call for financial and operational support to help the aviation industry reach a sustainable "new normal". The high value of time saved at check points also justifies investments that make the pandemic control and health measures efficient and smooth. Travellers' time spent on airport health control should be within 20 min to avoid substantial negative impacts on business travel demand.

Advanced modelling of commuter choice model and work from home during COVID-19 restrictions in Australia.

The decision to work from home (WFH) or to commute during COVID-19 is having a major structural impact on individuals' travel, work and lifestyle. There are many possible factors influencing this non-marginal change, some of which are captured by objective variables while others are best represented by a number of underlying latent traits captured by attitudes towards WFH and the use of specific modes of transport for the commute that have a bio-security risk such as public transport (PT). We develop and implement a hybrid choice model to investigate the sources of influence, accounting for the endogenous nature of latent soft variables for workers in metropolitan areas in New South Wales and Queensland. The data was collected between September-October 2020, during a period of no lockdown and relatively minor restrictions on workplaces and public gatherings. The results show that one of the most important attributes defining the WFH loving attitude is the workplace policy towards WFH, with workers that can decide where to work having a higher probability of WFH, followed by those that are being directed to, relative to other workplace policies. The bio-security concern with using shared modes such as public transport is a key driver of WFH and choosing to commute via the safer environment of the private car.

Working from home in Australia in 2020: Positives, negatives and the potential for future benefits to transport and society.

The year 2020 has been marked by the most extraordinary event we have witnessed since World War II. While other health threats and geographical disasters have occurred, none have been on the global scale of COVID-19. Although many countries have experienced more than one wave of the pandemic throughout 2020, Australia has been largely able to contain the impact of the virus. While there are many reasons for this, a key component of reducing transmission has been restrictions on movement, and the widespread adoption of working from home (WFH) by those who can. In describing the experience Australian's have had with working from home across 2020, via three waves of data collection, we find that WFH become a positive unintended consequence in contributing to the future management of the transport network, especially in larger metropolitan areas. Evidence suggests that support for WFH will be continuing in the form of a hybrid work model with more flexible working times and locations, linked to largely positive experiences of WFH during 2020, an improved wellbeing of employees, and no loss of productivity to the economy. We highlight potential future benefits of WFH to society, including significant implications for congestion and crowding, concluding that WFH is a formidable transport policy lever that must become embedded in the psyche of transport planners and decision makers so that we can gain some benefit from the pandemic.

The impact of working from home on modal commuting choice response during COVID-19: Implications for two metropolitan areas in Australia.

The need to recognise and account for the influence of working from home on commuting activity has never been so real as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. Not only does this change the performance of the transport network, it also means that the way in which transport modellers and planners use models estimated on a typical weekday of travel and expand it up to the week and the year must be questioned and appropriately revised to adjust for the quantum of working from home. Although teleworking is not a new phenomenon, what is new is the ferocity by which it has been imposed on individuals throughout the world, and the expectation that working from home is no longer a temporary phenomenon but one that is likely to continue to some non-marginal extent given its acceptance and revealed preferences from both many employees and employ where working from home makes good sense. This paper formalises the relationship between working from home and commuting by day of the week and time of day for two large metropolitan areas in Australia, Brisbane and Sydney, using a mixed logit choice model, identifying the influences on such choices together with a mapping model between the probability of working from home and socioeconomic and other contextual influences that are commonly used in strategic transport models to predict demand for various modes by location. The findings, based on Wave 3 (approximately 6 months from the initial outbreak of the pandemic) of an ongoing data collection exercise, provide the first formal evidence for Australia in enabling transport planners to adjust their predicted modal shares and overall modal travel activity for the presence of working from home.

What does the quantum of working from home do to the value of commuting time used in transport appraisal?

The need to recognise and account for the influence of working from home on commuting activity has never been so real as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. Given a recognition that WFH activity during the pandemic has reduced the amount of commuting activity compared to pre-COVID-19, the inevitable question is raised as to what this might mean for some of the crucial inputs in the appraisal of transport initiatives. One critical value used in benefit-cost analysis is the value of time which converts time into monetary units in the calculation of user benefits. We are interested in whether reduced commuting activity is associated with higher or lower willing to pay to save time. We investigate this possibility with data from the Greater Sydney Metropolitan Area in late 2020 when working from home was at a high level. The findings of a higher average commuter VoT have major implications for the VoT used in transport appraisal given that time savings are the largest user benefit. We suggest a percentage adjustment required to align with the ‘new normal’ as currently known.

Impact of COVID-19 on the number of days working from home and commuting travel: A cross-cultural comparison between Australia, South America and South Africa.

The COVID-19 pandemic has changed the way we go about our daily lives in ways that are unlikely to return to the pre-COVID-19 levels. A key feature of the COVID-19 era is likely to be a rethink of the way we work and the implications on commuting activity. Working from home (WFH) has been the 'new normal' during the period of lockdown, except for essential services that require commuting. In recognition of the new normal as represented by an increasing amount of WFH, this paper develops a model to identify the incidence of WFH and what impact this could have on the number of weekly commuting trips. Using data collected in eight countries (Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru and South Africa), we developed a Poisson regression model for the number of days individuals worked from home during the pandemic. Simulated scenarios quantify the impact of the different variables on the probability of WFH by country. The findings provide a reference point as we continue to undertake similar analysis at different points through time during the pandemic and after when restrictions are effectively removed.

Public transport trends in Australia during the COVID-19 pandemic: An investigation of the influence of bio-security concerns on trip behaviour.

This paper draws on findings from an Australia-wide survey with data collected in three waves throughout 2020 to explore the impact of COVID-19 on public transport trends in metropolitan areas of Australia. Following consideration of the public transport sector response to the pandemic and the emerging literature context, we explore three principal questions: (i) How has weekly travel composition changed across the waves? (ii) How has level of concern with using public transport changed over the course of the pandemic given new bio-security concerns? and (iii) How has attitudes to risk been associated with the changes in PT use? A key finding is that concerns over bio-security issues around public transport are enduring, that concern about hygiene is significantly negatively related to public transport use and that those with higher concern about the hygiene of public transport also held higher concern about COVID-19 at work. Even as COVID-19 restrictions are eased, both concern about crowds and hygiene have a significant and negative correlation with public transport use. Concluding remarks are offered on what might need to happen for public transport patronage to start returning.

Australia 6 months after COVID-19 restrictions- part 1: Changes to travel activity and attitude to measures.

While many countries have experienced more than one wave of the pandemic throughout 2020, Australia has been able to contain the virus in a way that makes it a stand out (with New Zealand) in the way that it has been contained, with an exception in Victoria linked to failed quarantine procedures for travellers returning from overseas. Through descriptive analysis, this paper builds on earlier papers by the authors on the Australian response, with a focus on the changing dynamics of travel activity, concern with public transport, and attitudes surrounding activity given the perception of risk of COVID-19 and the level of public support for regulatory intervention and restrictions on movement. We find that Australia continues to suppress travel, particularly that for commuting, that comfort in completing day-to-day activities continues to rise (with the exception of Victoria where confidence feel significantly), and while support for intervention measures remains high, there has been an erosion in sentiment. As with previous work, we discuss what this might mean for future transport policy, and attempt to draw lessons from the Australian experience.

Australia 6 months after COVID-19 restrictions part 2: The impact of working from home.

This paper (Part 2 in the paper series), building on earlier studies examining the Australian response, extends on findings related to travel activity, commuting, and attitudes towards COVID-19 measures (Part 1 in the paper series). In this paper we focus in detail on the impact of, and experiences with, working from home (WFH), perhaps the largest of the positive unintended consequence of the pandemic, with respect to transport, and a key lens through which the changing patterns in travel activity and attitudes discussed in Part 1 need to be understood. We conclude that through the widespread adoption of WFH as a result of nationwide public health orders, there is evidence emerging that WFH is now seen as an appealing instrument of change by employees and employers, there is growing support to continue to support WFH into the future. This represents a significant potential contribution to the future management of the transport network, especially in larger metropolitan areas. We also discuss policy implications of this result and what the international community may take from the Australian experience.